Predicting Migration Dynamics with Conditional and Posterior Probabilities

Findings: People’s social ties, not just cost and distance, play a role in deciding where people migrate.

Method: A Bayesian place-pair mode tested against other existing models used to predict migration like the traditional gravity model.

Good for: Understanding inter-city migration in the United States, which impacts the economic lives of cities, urban planning and more. If you are considering how to prepare for fluctuations in housing or employment based on inflows and outflows.

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